The Keys to the Shadow banking system uses a dynamic fractal matrix based on the top economist in the world. The intellectual theories of David Rosenberg, Noureli Roubini, Gary Schilling, Robert Schiller, Dr. Herrera and Paul Krugman are used to create a economic fractal matrix.The global deflation is the major driving force for the next 9 years. The fractal matrix gives solutions to stocks, bonds, real estate, currencies, gold, commodities, oil and Macro-trend forecasting.
WHERE ARE INTEREST RATES GOING? WHEN WILL DELEVERAGING END AND THE NEW AMERICAN PROSPERITY BEGIN? THE KEY TO UNDERSTAND THE CYCLICAL RETURN OF INFLATIONARY UPWAVE IS SCHEDULED TO RETURN IN 2018. WE HAVE NOW ENTERED INTO 37 YEAR RETURN TO HIGHER INTEREST RATES.
USING THE RESEARCH OF SIDNEY HOMER'S HISTORY OF INTEREST RATES AND LOUISE YAMADA'S TECHNICAL INDICATORS ON INTEREST RATES WE FIND THE FOLLOWING RESULTS:
(1) THE PERIOD FROM 1981- 2018 FORM THE DEFLATIONARY BOTTOM OF INTEREST RATES WITH 30 YEAR RATES AT 3.72% FOR 30 YEAR MORTGAGE AND 2.81% FOR 15 YEAR MORTGAGE.
(2) THE CYCLE INDICATOR OF 37 YEARS INTEREST BASE FORMATION HAS GIVEN A DATA BASES FOR FUTURE INTEREST RATES. THE 1981 HIGH OF 18.00% VERSUS 2016 3.72%. WE ARE NOW TALKING ABOUT DELUSIONAL INTEREST RATES OF NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES.
(3). THE COMING OF 5.23% INTEREST RATES WILL SIGNAL THE END OF DEFLATIONARY RATES AND OF LARGE SCALE RACE TO 19% INTEREST RATES. WE CAN LOOK AT 2018(3.0 %)- 2O53 (19%).
(4) THESE LOW RATES BENEFIT THE MILLENNIAL GENERATION FOR 15 YEARS PERIOD. THE REAL ESTATE MARKET WILL BOOM TO NEW HIGHS, STOCK MARKET WILL CRASH, COMMODITIES WILL BEGIN A HISTORIC RISE FOR 15 YEARS, BONDS WILL CRASH AND EMERGING MARKETS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE. THE SAVERS WILL START PROFITING FROM HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND CD MARKET WILL RETURN.
(5) THE DELEVERAGING WILL COME TO END AN END 2018 AND START HEALTHY CORPORATE GROWTH AND MASSIVE TRILLION DOLLAR GOVERNMENT INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING. THE RISING WAGES AND MINIMUM WAGE EXPANSION WILL START WAGE COST INFLATIONARY CYCLE.
(6) THE BOTTOM OF THE DEFLATIONARY CYCLE OF 2017-2020 WILL CONTINUE THE LOW DEFLATIONARY CYCLE OF DEVELEVERAGING, COLLAPSING COMMODITIES, BOND WORSHIP, REAL ESTATE DOLDRUMS OF HOUSING INVENTORIES, BANK PARALYSIS FOR CONSUMER MARKETS, EMERGING MARKETS COLLAPSE, AND GOLD COLLAPSE.
THE $64,000.00 DOLLAR QUESTION IN TODAY'S HYPER INFLATED MARKET : IS IT TIME TO SHORT BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY SHARES? THE OVEREVALUATED STOCK MARKET SUGGEST THAT THE TIME IS HERE!
THE USE OF PUTS ON BRK-A AND BRK-B IS THE REAL QUESTION IN TODAY'S MARKET. CURRENTLY, BRK- A CLOSED AT $197,310.23 WHICH IS OUTRAGEOUS! THE BRK-B IS AT A REASONABLE $130.00 AND STILL WE ARE LEFT WITH A LINGERING SHADOW OF MASSIVE GLOBAL DE-LEVERAGING.
THE OIL INDUSTRY ASSET VALUES HAVE FALLEN OVER $100 TRILLION DOLLARS AND TRANSFERRED $ 3 TRILLION DOLLARS TO THE CONSUMERS. MANY PEOPLE HAVE BELIEVED THAT THE OIL CARTEL WAS UNBREAKABLE. SIMILARILY, MANY BELIEVE THAT WARREN BUFFET LIVES IN FINANCIAL MOUNT OLYMPUS.
THE MARKET IS PLAYING A GAME WITH THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS. MANY INVESTORS ARE PLAYING A VERSION OF WAR GAMES WITH THE STOCK MARKET. HOW LONG WILL BERKSHIRE HATHWAY LUCK RUN? WILL THEIR LUCK FINALLY RUN OUT OF GAS?
MANY INDIVIDUALS HAVE FORGOTTEN THE RANDOM WALK THEORY OF INVESTING AND MANY INDIVIDUAL HAVE BEEN FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS. WILL BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY RELEASE A BLACK SWAN?
THE STOCK MARKET BEGINS A YEARLY COLLAPSE IN EQUITY VALUES. THE DEFLATIONARY RING OF FIRE HAS HIT THE STOCK MARKET. THE COMBINATION OF THE $ 3 TRILLION D0LLAR COLLAPSE OF OIL MARKETS, CHINESE TRILLION DOLLAR GDP MELTDOWN, THE TRILLION DOLLAR THIRD WORLD EXPORT MARKETS COLLAPSE AND OVERVALUED WORLD STOCK MARKETS HAVE CREATED THE PERFECT STORM.
THE EQUITY BUBBLE HAS CREATED A NEW OUTFLOW OF INVESTMENT DOLLARS TO SAFETY HAVENS. THE DEFLATIONARY HAVENS ARE FOUND IN GOLD, BONDS, HEALTH STOCKS, DEFENSE STOCKS, AND EVEN BANK ACCOUNTS.
THE USA STOCK MARKET IS GOING TO AVERAGE 38% FOR THE BEARS. THIS IS THE YEAR OF THE GREAT SHORT. THE USA STOCK MARKET HAS CREATED SOLID NEGATIVE STOCK MARKET FUNDAMENTALS.
WHAT ARE THE NEW STOCK MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: (BASED ON THE PERCENT DOWN FROM 52 WEEK HIGH) THE SHORT CRITERIA IS A 50% DROP TO BE AN EFFECTIVE SHORT RESEARCH AREA. THE MAJOR STOCKS OF THOMSON REUTERS U.S. MOST SHORTED INDEX TRACES 25 TO THE TOP COMPANIES THAT HAVE SHORTS ON THEM.
CURRENTLY, WORLD STOCK MARKETS HAVE LOST $ 8 TRILLION IN VALUE!!! THE DOW STOCKS NEED TO FALL TO 10,000. WE NEED A 6,000 POINT DROP! WE NEED 600 POINT DROP A MONTH FOR 10 MONTHS. WE NEED ABOUT 150 POINT CUMULATIVE DROP A WEEK.
1. LARGE CAPS ARE DOWN -21.3% * BEGINNING SHORT
2. MID-CAPS ARE DOWN -25.3% * BEGINNING SHORT
3. SMALL CAPS ARE DOWN -29.2% *MIDDLE RANGE SHORT
4. FINANCIALS ARE DOWN - 19% * PROTO SHORTS
5. CONSUMER STAPLES -17.6% *PROTO SHORTS
6. UTILITIES ARE DOWN -17.6% *PROTO SHORTS
7. ENERGY IS DOWN 51.6% * HEAVY SHORT (CANADIAN OIL NOW LESS THAN $10.00 A BARRELL)
THE ENERGY COMPLEX INCLUDES OIL EQUITIES AND OIL JUNK BONDS AND HEAVY BAD LOANS IN THE BANKING INDUSTRY. THE OIL COMPANIES HAVE SMALL SUPPLIERS WHO ARE GOING BANKRUPT AND EMPLOYMENT FALLOUT IS OVER 250,000 JOBS.
THE ENERGY COMPLEX INCLUDES GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS AND STATE AND CITY TAX BASE. THE REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY IN THE OIL PATCH IS CREATING OVERSUPPLY AND LOWER PRICES.
THIS IS AN EXCITING MARKET WITH GREAT NEGATIVE MACRO-ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS. THE MARKET IS NOW IN SELECTED SHORT STOCK MARKET CIRCUS MODE.
CURRENTLY, THE CANADIAN OIL SANDS BITUMEN HAS FALLEN BELOW $10.00 A BARRELL.
THE CHINESE SHORT AND ITS ASSOCIATED EMERGING MARKETS ARE GOOD SHORT POINTS. THE CANADIAN STOCK MARKET IS FACING AN EMERGING SHORT. THE CHINESE SATELLITE EMERGING NATIONS ARE AN EXCELLENT SHORT.
OUR STOCK MARKET NEEDS TO RESET TO REALISTIC STOCK VALUATIONS. THE MARKET LOOKS LIKE A GREAT SANTA CLAUS RALLY IN REVERSE.
THIS IS THE GREAT BEAR COMING TO VISIT THE USA FOR A YEAR! THE MARKET WILL ULTIMATELY RECOVER BUT WHAT A THRILL RIDE! THE BEAR MARKET WILL BECOME THE LARGEST BEAR IN HISTORY!
THIS IS NOT EASY MONEY AND REQUIRES LOTS OF DISCIPLINE DUE TO BULL RALLIES! REMEMBER THE USA IS STILL THE FLIGHT CAPITAL HAVEN OF THE WORLD. THE US DOLLAR BASED INVESTMENTS ARE FLIGHT CAPITALS FIRST CHOICE FOR CAPITAL PRESERVATION.
THERE IS CURRENTLY $ 15 TRILLION IN OFFSHORE MONEY AND THEY INVEST IN THE MARKET! THE CHINESE ARE SENDING OVER $ 300 BILLION OUT OF CHINA. THE EXCESS MONEY IS GOING INTO BONDS AND SOME STRATEGIC BULL RALLIES.
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE CANADIAN ECONOMY? THE CANADIAN ECONOMY WAS ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE AMERICAN REAL ESTATE BUBBLE OF 2007 AND GO AFTER GREAT BARGAINS IN THE USA.
NOW, THE TABLES ARE IN REVERSE AND THE AMERICAN INVESTOR CAN GO TO CANADA AND RECEIVE GREAT BARGAINS! WE ARE LOOKING AT 90% DECLINE IN CANADIAN REAL ESTATE VALUES. THE CANADIAN INVESTORS IN ARIZONA ARE SELLING AT RECORD RATES IN ORDER TO CASH IN ON THE CURRENCY CONVERSION BONUS!
HOW DID THIS COMING COLLAPSE COME ABOUT? THE CANADIAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND CANADIAN REAL ESTATE BROKERS SET UP A VERTICAL INTEGRATION FOR HARVESTING BUBBLE PROFITS.
STEP ONE: THE MORTGAGE CUSTOMER WAS ALLOWED TO BORROW ON LOW RATES FOR 35 TO 40 YEARS. THIS ALLOWED FOR THE CREATION OF A LOAN COLLATERAL AND EQUITY FLIPPING BUBBLE.
CANADIAN BORROWERS WERE ABLE TO USE THEIR PENSIONS, LIFE INSURANCE, CREDIT CARDS AND HELOC TO INVEST IN REAL ESTATE. THE OVERHEATING OF VANCOUVER, TORONTO, AND MONTREAL HAS NOW LED TO SUPER INFLATED REAL ESTATE PRICES.
STEP TWO: THE MORTGAGE BROKER WAS ABLE TO PROCESS THESE REAL ESTATE SALES AND USE THE BANKING SYSTEM FOR INSTANT LIQUIDITY. THE RECORD LOW INTEREST RATES CREATE THE INCENTIVE FOR EASY MONEY TO BE SPENT ON LARGE ESTATE IN VANCOUVER. THE AVERAGE HOME PRICES ARE AT $ 1 MILLION IN VANCOUVER.
STEP THREE: THE RAPID APPRECIATION OF HOMES AS FIXED INCOME COLLATERAL WAS USED BY INVESTMENT BANKS TO BUNDLE THESE INTO CREDIT INSTRUMENTS KNOWN AS CREDIT MARKET. THESE COULD BE BUNDLED AND SOLD FOR INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS.
STEVE EISMAN OF NEUBERGER BERMAN GROUP SEES THE CANADIAN HOUSING CRASH PARTY AS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY. THE REALITY IS THAT PARTY IS OVER FOR THE CANADIAN REAL ESTATE FUN BUS AND THE GAME IS NOW A GREAT MONEY MAKER FOR HEDGE FUNDS. IN A WORLD OF 2% GROWTH, THE CANADIAN SHORT IS WORTH A FORTUNE.
STEP FOUR: THE CANADIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET CREATED A SUPPORT SYSTEM THAT NOW IS IN ECONOMIC DANGER.
THE SUPPORT INDUSTRIES CONSISTS OF REGIONAL BANKS, HOME BUILDERS, TITLE INSURERS, INVESTMENT COMPANIES, CREDIT INSURERS, FURNITURE MAKERS, APPLIANCE AND TOOL MAKERS, CONSTRUCTION AND ENGINEERING COMPANIES, AND CONSUMER FINANCE COMPANIES. IT TOOK THE AMERICAN ROOM STORE 8 YEARS TO EVENTUALLY FILE FOR BANKRUPTCY IN 2015.
ALSO, ADD TO YOUR LIST OFFICE AND COMMERICAL REITS, AND RETAIL REITS. ALL OF THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN INTEGRATED INTO A DOWNWARD INVESTMENT. THE LOSSES WILL BE STAGGERING. THE CANADIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET HAS CREATED THE SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM.
STEP FIVE: THE MACRO-ECONOMIC FEATURES WILL FORCE A 8 YEAR DOWNWARD PRESSURE FROM LOW OIL PRICES, FALLING COMMODITY PRICES, AND LOWER VALUE OF THE LONNIE. THE CHINESE ECONOMY WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR 1/3 OF THE WORLD GDP AND THIS IS GONE! THE WORLD GDP IS LESS THAN 2% GROWTH.
THE FINAL DEFLATIONARY REALITY FOR CANADA IS THAT IF THERE IS NO QUANTITIVE EASING OR FORCED BANK LIQUIDITY THEN THE ECONOMY WILL COLLAPSE. THERE WILL BE NO GROWTH ONCE THE FINANCIAL FUNDAMENTALS KICK IN AND RESULT IN DEFLATIONARY DELEVERAGING.
THE ONLY WAY TO SURVIVE IS TO BORROW FROM FUTURE GROWTH BY USING QUANTITIVE EASING. THERE IS NO OTHER WAY. THE FINANCIAL GAP HAS TO BE CREATED IN ORDER TO CREATE FINANCIAL LIQUIDITY. THE USA MODEL SHOW MULTIPLE BEAR RALLIES CREATED BY BANK LIQUIDITY. THIS WILL ALLOW INVESTORS TO MAKE MONEY IN THE CANADIAN STOCK MARKET. THIS WILL BAILOUT THE CANADIAN BANKS AND MORTGAGE BROKERS.
THE CANADIAN ECONOMY IS NOW CREATING PART-TIME JOBS AND LOWER PAYING JOBS. CANADIANS ARE HEADING TO SUBSTANDARD LIVING STANDARDS. THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR IS RAPIDLY FALLING AND BLUE COLLAR JOBS ARE SCARCE. THE MIDDLE CLASS IS FACING THE SAME CRISIS AS IN THE UNITED STATES.
STEP SIX: THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE CANADIAN ECONOMY IS NOW STARTING A LONG PERIOD OF ASSET DELEVERAGING. THIS FLAT LINING IS THE KEY TO UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE OF CANADA. CANADA IS A GREAT COUNTRY WITH MANY RESOURCES BUT IS NOW HEADING FOR THE 99 CENT STORE!
THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS RAISED THE COST OF MONEY BY .25 WITH A GOAL OF 2% OVER 2 YEARS. THIS IS LIKE PUTTING A CAR IN REVERSE AND HOPING IT WILL GO INTO DRIVE. THE TRANSMISSION CABLE IS BROKEN AND CANNOT BE REPLACED BY A DEFECT PART.
THIS STRANGE ECONOMIC PARADOX THAT FEDERAL RESERVE INFLATIONARY GOAL OF 2% IN A DEFLATIONARY ECONOMY. THIS IS THE START OF A NEGATIVE CYCLE. THE FEDERAL RESERVE FINANCIAL CHAIN REACTION IS DESIGNED TO JUMP START A SLOW MOVING TURTLE INFLATION.
WE ARE NOT IN AN INFLATIONARY ECONOMY. WE ARE ABOUT 5 YEARS FROM AN INFLATIONARY ECONOMY. THIS MOVE IS COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE BECAUSE IT DECREASES THE DEMAND FOR MONEY. THE BANKS HAVE NO MAJOR COMMERICAL DEMAND FOR MONEY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THEIR IS NO PRICING POWER AND MORE EMPLOYMENT CUTS ARE THE NEW NORMAL.
THE NEGATIVE CHAIN REACTION WILL HIT THE STOCK MARKET, COMMODITY MARKETS, CURRENCY MARKETS AND INCREASE LOAN DEFAULTS. THE U.S.A. INFRASTRUCTURE IS STILL BEING HELD HOSTAGE BY CONGRESS AND MIDDLE EASTERN MILITARY POLICY HAS COST THE USA ABOUT $ 3 TRILLION DOLLARS. WE ARE NOT IN A NEW ERA:
WE ARE STILL DELEVERAGING ASSETS! THERE IS A MIXTURE OF GOOD AND BAD DEFLATION. CHINA IS READY TO EXPLODE DOWNWARD. CHINA CAN ONLY MOVE TO CURRENCY PROTECTIONISM AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE PROTECTIONISM TO PROTECT ITS CONSUMER MARKETS. THIS IS A PROTECTIONIST FINANCIAL CONTAGION.
WE HAVE OVER 1 MILLIONS HOMES IN SURPLUS AND THERE IS NO CONSTRUCTION LABOR AVAILABLE. THE NEW ECONOMIC IMMIGRATION MODEL WILL RESULT IN A COLLAPSE OF UNSKILLED AND SEMI-SKILLED EMPLOYMENT POOLS. THERE IS A MASSIVE SHORTAGE OF UNSKILLED LABOR AND THE MINIMUM WAGE NOW HAS MADE THESE MARKETS HARD TO STAFF. THE AMERICAN UNDERCLASS IS NOW ON WAGE EQUIVALENT ENTITLEMENT BENEFITS.
THE AMERICAN PEOPLE NEED A TAX CUT AND $2,000.00 REBATE FROM THE NEW TAX CODE. THE PROBLEM INHERENT WITH A DEFLATIONARY ECONOMY IS THAT AMERICANS ARE WORRIED ABOUT SAVINGS AND NOT INVESTING. THE FEDERAL RESERVE DOES NOT KNOW HOW TO PUT MONEY BACK INTO THE HANDS OF THE PEOPLE. THEY CAN ONLY CREATE PRICE STABILIZATION AND SOME TYPE OF DEMAND FOR MONEY. THERE IS NO COMMERICAL DEMAND FOR LARGE LOANS AND CONSUMERS ARE STILL WITHOUT SAVINGS OR HOME EQUITY. THE CONGRESS CANNOT MOVE THE MARKETS BECAUSE THEY HAVE CREATED FINANCIAL GRIDLOCK.
The interdisciplinary study of history has led to greater discoveries in the field. We need to integrate the social sciences, humanities and history into a unified field of study. The need for a unified field of history today are based on the advanced interdisciplinary technologies of the 21st Century. The 21st century technologies are making interdisciplinary research a modern imperative. We must integrate the new technologies with a unified field of history. History is too important to be left to 19th Century Paradigm of the German University over-specialization.
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