FAILURE OF DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS !

THE FAILURE OF LURING STATISTICAL DATA OF DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
IS AN UNEXPECTED FAILURE.  THE CONCEPT OF UNEXPECTED FAILURE GIVES US
AN INSIGHT INTO WHY WE MUST TEMPER OUR ANALYSIS WITH MORE
INVESTMENT INDICATORS.  THE UNEXPECTED FAILURE HAS LEAD BEARS TO ECONOMIC DISASTER.  THIS MAY BE A MAJOR TIME LAG OR A SUBTLE
BFREAKDOWN OF CAUSE AND EFFECT CHAIN WITHIN ANALYSIS COUPLED WITH
MACRO-STATISTICAL ANALYSIS WHICH AN INEFFECTIVE TOOL.  THIS TYPE OF
ANALYSIS MAY LEAD TO LOSS OF INCOME AND BANKRUPCY OF CAPITAL.  THERE ARE
TOO MANY OTHER TOOLS THAT HELP YOU WITH MICRO-ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKETS AND FINANCIAL MARKETS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GAMBLERS FALLACY THAT EVENTUALLY THEY WILL WIN IF THEY HAVE 100 YEARS TO WAIT!

TRILLION DOLLAR TREASURY OPTION!

President Obama has the option of issuing a ONE TRILLION DOLLAR PLATINUM COIN TO
PAY FOR THE NATIONAL DEBT.  The issue solves several problems with the Republican
hostage game strategy: (1) Obama does not have to risk using 14th Amendment which allows for
Presidential discretion to pay for debt but allows the House of Representative to bring impeachment
charges and creates the President hostage game to Political statemate games; (2) The Republican strategy
to shut down the government and create economic negative multiplier and investment accelerator
would attempt to force Democrats in to giving up Social Security and Medicare spending cuts; (3) The one trillion coin method allows for immediate deposit in the Federal Reserve Banks and creates checkwriting and Federal Bonding of debt to avoid paying high interest rates; (4) The coin can have the face of John Maynard
Keynes and legislation can be used to ratify after the event of issuing coin; (5) The Republicans would have to agree to efficiency cuts in the entitlement zone or face the trillion dollar coin. Another Republican defeat would now set the stage for a massive attack on 2014 Republican strongholds and creation of a new
Democratic majority in the House of Representative.

DEBT CEILING VICTORY FOR DEMOCRATS!

THE DEMOCRATS ARE NOW IN A POSITION TO WIN THE DEBT CEILING FROM
THE REPUBLICANS.  THE REPUBLICAN SCORECARE SO FAR IS :

1. NO PARTY LEADER
2. NO POLITICAL PLATFORM
3. INTERNAL CIVIL WAR IN REPUBLICAN COMMUNITY
4. BUSINESS COMMUNITY CANNOT SUPPORT GOV.
SHUT DOWN AND COLLAPSE OF MARKETS.
5. REPUBLICANS HAVE LOST 2 ELECTION WITH
PRESIDENT OBAMA.
6. THE REPUBLICAN HAVE FOLDED ON FISCAL CLIFF
AND HAVE NO UNIFYING IDEOLOGY.
7. THE REPUBLICANS HAVE LOST A DECADE OF
POLITICAL GAIN WITH  YOUNGER GENERATION.
8. NEW PERCEPTION OF REPUBLICANS AS
UNEDUCATED AND LUNATIC FRINGE TEA PARTY
9. PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS DEFEATED A WAR HERO AND
MILLIONAIRE CANDIDATE.
10. REPUBLICANS HAVE RAISED TAXES FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN 10 YEARS.
11. REPUBLICANS CAN LOSE BIG IN THE 2014 ELECTIONS.

CONSEQUENTLY, THE DEMOCRATS NEW UNIFYING PROGRESSIVE
IDEOLOGY HAS CREATED A NEW DOMINANT PARTY FOR THE
REST OF 2012-2022. THERE IS NO REASON TO GIVE INTO ANY
REPUBLICAN DEMANDS FOR SPENDING CUTS HOWEVER
THE DEMOCRATS WILL BY USING EFFECTIVE AND EFFICENCY
CUTS NOT BENEFIT CUTS TO THE SPENDING.

OBAMA HOLDS A POLITICAL ROYAL FLUSH

PRESIDENT OBAMA IS HOLDING A POLITICAL ROYAL FLUSH
FOR THE FISCAL POKER MATCH.  THE PRESIDENT CAN DEMAND
AND GET EVERYTHING HE WANTS BECAUSE HE IS HOLDING THE

HIGHEST COMBINATION KNOWN TO POKER: ROYAL FLUSH!

ESSENTIALLY, THE REPUBLICANS CAN GO OVER THE FISCAL CLIFF
AND LOSES THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AND PRESIDENT OBAMA
WILL CONTROL US. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES AND SENATE. HE
WILL CARRY A MAJOR REFORM PACKAGE FOR HIS LAST TWO YEARS IN
POLITICAL POWER.

THE REPUBLICANS ARE LIKE THE SOUTHERN DEMOCRATS OF THE
1860'S WHO VOLUNTARILLY REMOVED THEMSELVES FROM THE
LEGISLATIVE PROCESS TO ALLOW LINCOLN TO PASS RECONSTRUCTION
LEGISLATION.  THE REPUBLICAN SHOULD HEED THE WARNING THAT
THE OFFENSIVE GAME IS OVER AND IT IS DEFENSE FOR 4 YEARS -
IF  YOU STILL HOLD A SEAT IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.

THE PRESIDENT CAN NOW EXERCISE HIS POWER AND ACCEPT THE REWARDS
OF CONQUEST.  THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR VICTORY AND POLITICAL SPOILS OF WAR GO TO THE DEMOCRATS AND THEIR FOLLOWERS.  THIS VICTORY WILL
CREATE A NEW PROSPERITY AND NEW AGE OF ECONOMIC WEALTH FOR AMERICA.

REPUBLICAN FISCAL CLIFF-2013

THE FINANCIAL FISCAL CLIFF IS A MISNOMER- IT SHOULD BE CALLED THE REPUBLICAN FISCAL CLIFF.  THE REPUBLICAN HAVE PLACED A POKER BET THAT THEY CAN BLUFF THE DEMOCRATS OUT OF THE TAX CUTS FOR THE WEALTHY.  THE ARE HOLDING A LOW PAIR AND THE PRESIDENT IS HOLDING A FULL HOUSE.  THE REPUBLICAN STRATEGY IS TO FORCE A EARLY CALL AND WIN A CONGRESS OF VIENNA TYPE VICTORY OVER THE PRESIDENT.  THE REPUBLICAN PROBLEM IN PLAYING THEIR CARDS IN THIS MATTER IS:

(1) THE PRESIDENT CAN RAISE THE REPUBLICANS AND WAIT UNTIL AFTER JANUARY OF 2013.  THE CAN RE-NEGOTIATE AND THE PRESIDENT WILL WIN.

 (2) THE REPUBLICANS WILL BE FORCED TO EXPLAIN THEIR POSITION AND COULD LOSE 30 SEATS OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVE IN 2014.

(3) THE STOCK MARKET WILL LOSE 1.2 TRILLION IN VALUE IF WE GO OVER THE JANUARY 2013.

(4) THE PRESIDENT AS NO VESTED INTEREST IN AN EARLY GRAND BARGAIN.

( 5) THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS ON THE ROPES AND WHY NOT GO FOR A KNOCKOUT PUNCH AND TAKE THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVE BACK-

THE ULTIMATE DEATH CROSS: SHORT SIGNAL

THE UTLIMATE DEATH CROSS HAS BEEN ACHIEVED AND THIS WILL BEGIN A DECADE OF DECLINE IN THE STOCK MARKET.  THE KEY IS THAT THIS IS THE CONFIRMATION OF THE BEGINNING OF SECULAR STOCK MARKET.  WE ARE IN A DELEVERAGED FINANCIAL ENVIRONMENT AND THIS WILL BE THE KEY CONFIRMATION FOR A 40% DECLINE OF THE MARKET.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULBE BE 5 YEAR DECLINE AND QUICK RECOVERY IN 2017 BUT WE NEED EMPIRICAL DATA FOR THIS FORECAST.  THE IS THE TIME TO SHORT THE MARKET AND MAKE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILLION!

FACEBOOK AT $11.50

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE GREAT FACEBOOK IPO RACE?  THE REALITY IS THAT
FACEBOOK IPO HIT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR PROBLEM INVESTMENT POTHOLES:

(1) THE FACEBOOK VALUATION WILL BE ESTABLISHED AT THE JULY
EARNINGS RELEASE.  THIS FIGURE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE REALISTIC
EARNING EVALUATIONS.

(2) FACEBOOK WENT INTO THE CENTER OF THE STOCK MARKET DEVALUATION
WHICH IS THE RESULT OF DEFLATION.  THE IPO WENT DIRECTLY INTO THE
SUMMER STALL AND LONGER TERM DEVALUATION OF THE STOCK MARKET.

(3) THE INVESTMENT BANK WANTED TO DEFY GRAVITY AND SIGNALED TO
THE INVESTMENT WORLD THAT THEY ARE NO LONGER IN CONTROL.

(4) THE EUROPEAN CRASH IS COMING THROUGH THE BANKING CONDUITS NOT
THE EXPORT MARKET.  THIS MEANS THAT MORE WRITE DOWNS AND LOSSES.

(5) WHAT IS THE REAL VALUE OF FACEBOOK?  THE CURRENT VALUE IS
IN A RANGE OF $9.50 TO $13.50.  THIS IS THE REAL TRADING RANGE AND WILL
CHANGE IN THE FUTURE ONCE ZUCKERBERG FIGURES OUT THE MECHANICS
OF THE NEW EARNING POTENTIALS AVAILABLE IN A DEFLATIONARY MARKET.
REMEMBER, 85% OFTHE MILLENNIAL GENERATION CANNOT PARTICIPATE IN
THE CONSUMER ECONOMY FOR ABOUT 8 YEARS. THIS IS HIGHLY DEFLATIONARY FOR FACEBOOK.  THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW PRODUCTS AND NEW SERVICES
HAVE TO LEVERAGE DEFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS.