Friday, August 21, 2015

FINANCIAL TSUNAMI HITS THE STOCK MARKET!


THE FINANCIAL TSUNAMI HAS HIT THE AMERICAN STOCK MARKET. THE STOCK MARKET LOST 528. 40 POINTS IN ONE DAY! This financial tsunami started around August 19 and will last until October 19, 2015. We expect a monthly drop of 500 points in September and October 500 points or more! Our goal is a 2,000 drop in points!

 The perfect storm is caused by the interaction of the following forces: (1) The Greek Financial debacle was the first shock waves; (2) The Chinese SHANGHAI  Stock market has speculative bubble or pigs on LSD and a 40% decline in values: the devaluation of the Yuan is beginning of currency and  trade wars; 



 (3) Shiller stock market valuation index showed a historical over-valuation of stocks and this may the beginning of a financial epidemic; (4) Gary Schilling's Deleveraging of the Debt and Low Growth that has hit the emerging markets-commodity based currencies and spread to low growth epidemic; (4) The end of the commodities supercycle including copper,  mining, heavy construction lead by the collapse of the oil industry to a possible $10.00 a barrel of oil;




 (5) stock market correction of  over-evaluated stocks like solar city, chevron,caterpillar,  shell,  lng, H-packard, Apple, Netflicks especially 48% of technology stocks; (6) collapse of oil industry stocks with future bankruptcies in the oil patch. (7) the coming collapse of Gold to $600 an ounce; (7) the coming liquidity crisis in Bonds and Fed is not going to raise rates in September; (8) the collapse of Macau due to low junkets credit of $1 Million per hand and 20% drop of hong dollars converted into yuan and the International Gambling stocks in Las Vegas; (8)  and lower perceived slots payouts from slot machines.

WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?  THE AMERICAN INVESTOR NEEDS TO MOVE INTO CASH AND STAY IN U.S. DENOMINATED HIGH-QUALITY INVESTMENTS. WE SELL THE AMERICAN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS TO CHINA AND ARE INSULATED FROM THEIR MARKET. 

 THE AMERICAN ECONOMY IS VERY STRONG BUT WILL NOT BE REFLECTED IN THE STOCK MARKET. THE AMERICAN ECONOMY IS MOVING FASTER THAN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS.  THE SMART MONEY IS LOOKING AT THE EUROPEAN AND JAPANESE STOCK MARKET AFTER THE TSUNAMI!




THE STOCK MARKET IS A ZERO SUM GAME THAT IS NOT A  MIRROR OF THE US. ECONOMY.THE IDEA IS TO KEEP FAITH IN THE UNITED STATES AND REMEMBER WE WILL ENTER INTO A RENAISSANCE FUTURE.

Sunday, August 9, 2015

MOE DALITZ DIARIES: THE CREATIVE DESTRUCTION OF MOE DALITZ'S CITY OF L...

MOE DALITZ DIARIES: THE CREATIVE DESTRUCTION OF MOE DALITZ'S CITY OF L...: WE HAVE ENTERED INTO A NEW MILLENNIUM CYCLE.  THE OLD LAS VEGAS BASED ON THE MONOPOLY EMPIRE OF GAMBLING IS COMING TO AN END. WE ARE L...

Monday, August 3, 2015

THE NEW DEFLATIONARY SHOOTING GALLERY; GOLD, OIL AND CHINA!



THE NEW DEFLATIONARY SHOOTING GALLERY IS OPEN FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS. WE HAVE A SET OF NEW TARGETS THAT ARE GOING DOWN FAST. THE COMMODITIES OF GOLD, OIL AND COMMODITIES OF CHINA ARE GOING DOWN FAST!

 THE GOLD MARKET FAIR VALUE IS AT $825.00 AND A LOW OF $325.00. THE LATEST ANALYSIS OF THE GOLD MARKET HAS CREATED A NEW LOWER EXPECTATION OF VALUE.

 THE NEW ANALYSIS SEES THE RISE OF GOLD IN 2007 AS THE RESULT OF INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS. WE NOW SEE THAT THE DEFLATIONARY FACTOR IS NOW BEING ADDED INTO THE EQUATION.

 WE KNOW FOR FACT THAT THE GOLD PRODUCTION COST IS AT $1,104.00 AS OUR BASELINE. IT WILL BECOME VERY UNPROFITABLE TO MINE GOLD IN THE FUTURE AT THE NEW PRICES.




THE OIL MARKET IS OVERPRICED AT $50.00 AND IF WE TAKE THE FAIR MARKET VALUE OF OIL AT $10.00 TO $20.00

 WE ARE HEAD DOWN! THE PRICE SHOOTING GALLERY HAS NOW HIT THE MARKETS. THE OIL INDUSTRY IS NOW COMING TO THE REALIZATION THAT THEY NEED TO MAKE FAST CUTS IN THEIR INDUSTRY.

 THEY ARE ON AN OLD BUDGET FOR OIL AT $100.00 A BARREL.

THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET IS OVERVALUED BY 35% AND NEEDS TO GO DOWN TO THIS NEW LEVEL. THE SHORTING OF YANG IS A WILD PLAY FOR A RALLY IN THE CHINESE MARKET! THIS IS A WILD CARD.

 THE STOCKS ARE OVER-PRICED AND THE CHINESE GAMBLING SECTOR HAS ANOTHER DECLINE OF 45% IN THE NEXT MONTHS.

 CHINESE PLAY HAS BECOME A DOWNWARD MOVEMENT ON ALL THE DIFFERENT COMMODITIES.THE PURCHASING PRICE OF THESE COMMODITIES IS STILL COLLAPSING.


Sunday, July 12, 2015

CHINESE STOCK MARKET COLLAPSE $ 3 8 TRILLION IN 30 DAYS!


THE GREAT CHINESE STOCK MARKET BOOM HAS SUFFERED A 1929 TYPE OF LOSS:   
 $ 3.8 TRILLION IN 30 DAYS.  THE CHINESE RETAIL STOCK MARKET HAS COLLAPSED AND THE MAJORITY OF THE 2/3 STOCK PICKERS DO NOT HAVE A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA.

 THE MAJORITY ARE MARGIN INVESTORS WHO WANT STOCK LEVERAGE. THE MAJORITY OF INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ARE NOT INVOLVED IN THIS TYPE OF MARGIN SPECULATION.  THE AVERAGE POSITION IS ABOUT 15 DAYS. THE AVERAGE CHINESE INVESTOR HAS A RATIO OF 180% TO EACH DOLLAR INVESTED.

 THERE ARE ABOUT 10% OF STOCK PICKERS FROM THE COSTAL CHINESE CITIES THAT ARE INVOLVED IN THIS MARKET.  THEY DO NO HAVE THE FINANCIAL EDUCATION AND TOOLS TO BE SUCCESSFUL IN STOCK MARKET SPECULATION. THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO START SMALL FINANCE ACADEMIES IN THE MAJOR CITIES. THEY NEED AN EFFECTIVE PROGRAM OF EDUCATION.

THE IMMEDIATE IMPACT OF THE STOCK MARKET COLLAPSE IS ON THE COMMODITY MARKETS AND SHADOW BANKING FINANCIAL SECTOR. THE COPPER SECTOR TENDS TO FOLLOW THE STOCK MARKET.

 THIS INDICATOR SHOWS A DECLINE OF ANOTHER 35% IN NEXT 90 DAYS.  THESE TWO SECTORS WILL BE EXPERIENCING MARKET DISLOCATION. THE NEED FOR A MARKET SHORT WILL BE THE ONLY WAY TO PLAY THIS MARKET.



THE CHINESE COMMUNIST GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO IMMEDIATELY PASS A (SMIP) STOCK MARKET INSURANCE PROGRAM.  ALL CHINESE STOCK MARKET INVESTORS WILL HAVE THEIR LOSSES PROTECTED UP TO 80% OF LOSSES. THE $ 320 BILLION MARGIN LOANS WILL BE PUT ON HOLD UNTIL THE COLLATERAL LOANS PAY THEIR ACCOUNTS.  THE OTHER 20%  IN LOSSES BY STOCK MARKET INVESTOR WILL BE GIVEN A TAX CREDIT OF 20%  BY THE GOVERNMENT.

  THE MONEY LOSS WILL BE GUARANTEED BY THE CHINESE BANKS WHICH WILL DEPOSIT A COLLATERAL LOAN IN THE CUSTOMERS STOCK MARKET ACCOUNT. THE STOCK MARKET COLLATERAL LOANS WILL BE BACKED BY THE FULL FAITH AND CREDIT OF THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT TREASURY BONDS. 




 THE CHINESE GOVERNMENTS GOAL IS TO CREATE A MARKET TYPE ECONOMY. THE ONLY WAY TO DO THIS IS TO SUBSIDIES THIS MARKET

. CURRENTLY, THE MINISTER OF FINANCE OF CHINA ANNOUNCED THAT THEY WANTED THEIR $500 BILLION PENSION FUND TO START INVESTING IN THE STOCK MARKET. THE USE OF THE SUGGESTED INSURANCE WOULD GUARANTEE GREATER SUPPORT FOR THE PENSION FUNDS. THE CHINESE FINANCIAL ESTABLISHMENT WANTS TO BE PART OF THE WORLD MARKETS IN ORDER TO MAKE THE YUAN A RESERVE CURRENCY OF THE WORLD.

 THE USE OF A GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY IS AN EFFECTIVE TOOL TO BEGIN A STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT SECTOR. THIS IS THE COST OF DOING BUSINESS IN THE CAPITALISTIC WORLD. THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT HAS NO REAL CHOICE WITH ITS NEED TO CREATE AN OFFSHORE CHINESE BANKING SYSTEM. THEIR ULTIMATE GOAL IS TO CREATE GLOBAL LIQUIDITY WITH THE CHINESE YUAN.






Saturday, June 27, 2015

The Keys to the Shadow Banking System: THOMAS PIKETTY'S 10 NEW RULES FOR INVESTING IN THE...

The Keys to the Shadow Banking System: THOMAS PIKETTY'S 10 NEW RULES FOR INVESTING IN THE...: THOMAS PICKETTY'S CAPITAL IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY HAS OPENED  UP A NEW PARADIGM FOR INVESTMENTS. THOMAS PICKETTY'S  WORK HA...

THOMAS PIKETTY'S 10 NEW RULES FOR INVESTING IN THE 21ST CENTURY!


THOMAS PICKETTY'S CAPITAL IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY HAS OPENED  UP A NEW PARADIGM FOR INVESTMENTS. THOMAS PICKETTY'S  WORK HAS CREATED NEW ECONOMIC FRACTALS FOR UNDERSTANDING THE CHANGING ENVIRONMENT FOR INVESTORS.


 WHAT ARE THE 10 NEW RULES FOR INVESTMENTS FROM 2015- 2099?

1. ALL INVESTMENTS IN THE WORLD WILL BE GOVERNED BY A SIMPLE FACT  THAT R  > G.  WE ARE ENTERING A BRAVE NEW WORLD OF SLOW GROWTH FROM 1% TO 1.5% FOR NEXT 84 YEAR. THIS WILL BENEFIT THE HOLDER OF CAPITAL AND THE AMERICAN 1%. WE SEEK A RETURN OF THE PROPERTY CLASS IN AMERICA.

2. THE GREATEST ADVANTAGE INVESTMENTS FOR THE FUTURE ARE BASED ON R = CAPITAL RATE OF RETURN IS THE PRIME MOVER.  ALL FINANCIAL ASSETS AND REAL ESTATE ASSETS WILL GROW FROM 5% TO 10% PER YEAR. CAPITAL WILL GROW AT MAGICAL RATES AND CREATE WEALTH DYNASTY IN AMERICA.




3. THE BIG LOSERS IN THIS FRACTAL UNIVERSE WILL BE LABOR AND  LABOR RELATED INDUSTRIES THAT WILL GROW AT 1% FOR 84 YEARS. THE FACT IS THAT WAGES AND SALARIES WILL STAGNATE MUCH LONGER IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. THE TRAGEDY OF ADJUNCT PROFESSORS AND INSTRUCTORS IS DIRECT OUTCOME OF THIS NEW WEALTH IDEOLOGY. 

LABOR UNIONS WILL NEED TO REVISE THEIR ROLE WITH NEW DOMINANT CAPITAL DECISION MAKERS.  LABOR RATES OF RETURN CANNOT REALLY BE IMPROVED BY EDUCATION OR TECHNOLOGY. LABOR IS INFERIOR TO CAPITAL.

4. COLLEGE EDUCATION MARKETS WILL BECOME HIGHLY STRATIFIED AND BE DIVIDED INTO FOUR STRATIFIED MARKETS TO REFLECT THE DOMINATION OF GLOBAL CAPITALISM. 



COLLEGE EDUCATION WILL MIRROR HIGH DEGREES OF ECONOMIC INEQUALITY. . THE NEW HIGHER EDUCATION RULES WILL CREATE A NEW ECONOMIC CASTE SYSTEM. THE POLITICAL REALITY IS THAT HIGHER EDUCATION WILL NOT CHANGE THE ECONOMIC INEQUALITY BUT WILL REINFORCE THE IDEAS AND VALUES OF THE 1% IN AMERICAN SOCIETY.

 FIRST, THE ELITE COLLEGE WILL OFFER THE HIGHEST RATES OF RETURN FOR LABOR.  THE COMBINED ENDOWMENT VALUE OF THE TOP COLLEGES IS $400 BILLION AND THE AVERAGE PARENTAL INCOME OF HARVARD COLLEGE STUDENTS IS $450,000.00. COLLEGE SUCCESS IS BASED ON PARENTAL INCOME. THE MOST OUTRAGES TUITION ARE NEW BARRIER OF ENTRY FOR THE LOWER INVESTING CLASSES.



THE UPPER CLASS EDUCATION WILL CREATE GREATER SPHERES OF INFLUENCE AND POWER THROUGH INHERITED WEALTH. THE SAD FACT IS THAT THE NEW MINORITY IS THE MIDDLE CLASS AND WORKING CLASS. THEY WILL BE PRACTICALLY ELIMINATED FROM ATTENDING THESE COLLEGES.



SECOND, THE STATE UNIVERSITIES WILL OFFER A SMALLER RATE OF RETURN FROM JOBS WITH SMALLER LIFETIME SALARIES.  THE PRIME MOVER IS THE STUDENTS LOANS AND ESCALATING TUITION RATES. THE SAD FACT IS THAT THERE IS NO INHERITED WEALTH AND POOR PARENTAL INCOME.

SOME COMMUNITY COLLEGES WILL MAKE THE TRANSITION TO THIS LEVEL OF INVESTMENT RETURN. THE NEW  UPPER MIDDLE CLASS WILL BE SMALLER AND WORK HARDER TO ACHIEVE SMALLER AND SMALLER PIECES OF THE ECONOMIC PIE.

THIRD, GREAT MASS OF COMMUNITY COLLEGES AND PROFIT COLLEGES WILL OFFER THE SMALLEST RATES OF RETURN FOR DOLLARS INVESTED. THE COMMUNITY COLLEGES OFFER LOWER TUITION COSTS IN EXCHANGE FOR LOWER COMPLETION RATES AND GRADUATION RATES OF 7%.



   THE ONLINE COMMUNITY WITH 80% FAILURE RATES WILL BECOME SIMILAR TO MAIL ORDER EDUCATION OF THE 1950'S. THE NEW MIDDLE CLASS WILL DOMINATE THIS CATEGORY.

FOURTH,  THE NEW ECONOMIC OUTCASTS WILL BE THE HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES WHO WILL BE ELIMINATED FROM HIGHER EDUCATION IN AMERICA. MANY WILL VOLUNTARILY DROP OUT SEEKING LOWER CLASS JOBS.





 THEY DO NOT REALIZE THAT THEY LOWERED THEIR LIFE CHANCES BY 80%. THEY HAVE LOWEST RATES OF INHERITANCE AND PARENTAL INCOME.

 THE LOWER CLASSES WILL GROW LARGER AND WORK IN STAGNANT JOBS FOR THE NEXT 84 YEARS. THEY WILL RECEIVE ON THE JOB TRAINING AND 30 DAY TRAINING PROGRAMS. 



THE HIGH TURNOVER IN LOWER CLASS JOBS WILL BE BASED ON NEW TECHNOLOGIES OF ROBOTICS, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, NANO INDUSTRIES AND EFFICIENT TECHNOLOGIES. 


THESE NEW TECHNOLOGIES WILL BE USE TO EXPERIMENT WITH THIS INCOME POPULATION.  THIS POPULATION WILL GROW LARGER AND CREATE GOVERNMENT ENTITLEMENTS FOR LOWER CLASS INCOME REPLACEMENT VIA MINIMUM WAGES, ETC.

5. THE DEVELOPED WORLD WILL GROW FAST THAN THE UNDERDEVELOPED WORLD. THERE WILL BE  HIGHLY STRATIFIED RATES OF RETURN FOR USA, CHINA, JAPAN AND EUROPE. THE THIRD WORLD WILL ACHIEVE MUCH LOWER RATES OF RETURN. THE INVESTMENT WORLD WILL SHUT DOWN FOR THE THIRD WORLD. THE LABOR POOL OFFERS THE LOWEST RATE OF RETURN. 

6. THE RISE OF GAMBLING INDUSTRIES AS A FORM OF SUBSTITUTION FOR CAPITAL  FORMATION AND INVESTMENTS. THE RISE OF CASINOS, LOTTERIES, SWEEPSTAKES, AND GAMES OF CHANCE ARE THE ONLY WAY TO RAISE LARGE AMOUNTS OF CAPITAL IN SHORT TIME FOR THE MASS OF AMERICANS.

  MANY SEEK TO INCREASE THEIR INCOMES FROM GAMBLING ACTIVITIES BUT HAVE 95% FAILURE RATES FOR INVESTED DOLLARS. ONE BUSINESS WAS OFFERING SYNDICATED LOTTERY TICKETS AT 1 CENT A TICKET VS. THE USUAL COST OF $1.00 PER TICKET BUT THEY HAD 100% FAILURE RATES ON EACH PENNY INVESTED IN MEGA-JACKPOTS.



7.  THE BUSINESS CYCLE WILL REFLECT THE LOW GROWTH ENVIRONMENT BY LONGER PERIODS OF DEFLATION AND INFLATION. THE FEDERAL RESERVE CAN ONLY RE-DISTRIBUTE FUNDS AND BE THE LENDER OF LAST RESORT. THE FEDERAL RESERVE MAKES THE RULES FOR THE 1% AND ESSENTIALLY DEFINES THE COST OF MONEY AND INVESTMENT OUTCOMES.

8. THE RISE OF THE LUXURY REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS WILL GROW AT A STAGGERING RATE AND OFFER INCREDIBLE RATES OF RETURN. THE FAST MOVING REIT SECTOR WILL OUTSTRIP ALL INVESTMENTS DURING INFLATION.



9. THE BEGINNING OF THE CAPITAL TAX ON WEALTHY AMERICANS.  THE POLITICAL REALITY IS THAT CAPITAL TAX WILL REPLACE THE FLAT TAX.  THE CAPITAL TAX WILL EVENTUALLY BE THE POLITICAL DIVIDING POINT BETWEEN REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS. THERE IS NO WAY TO SOLVE AMERICAN WEALTH INEQUALITY WITHOUT SOME TYPE OF CAPITAL TAX.  IT WOULD BE SMARTER TO AGREE TO SMALL CAPITAL TAX EARLIER THAN LATER.

10. THE HIGHEST RETURN PER DOLLAR INVESTED IS TO MARRY INTO WEALTH AND USE INHERITED WEALTH TO RECEIVE INCREDIBLE RATES OF RETURN IN THE INVESTMENT MARKETS. THE SPORTS SYSTEM ENCOURAGES HIGH DROP RATES FROM HIGH SCHOOL AND COLLEGE TO PLAY PROFESSIONAL SPORTS. THE LURE IS HIGH INCOME AND CAPITAL FORMATION OVER PLAYING SPORTS FOR FREE OR ATTENDING THE HIGHLY STACKED AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION!