Friday, June 3, 2011

THE DEFLATIONARY RUN TO SAFETY!

The economic debate between inflation and deflation must be reduced to the following empirical
issues:
                (1) The role of commodities prices as the prime indicator for inflation and how
commodity prices have created a positive or negative movement toward prices.
               (2) The role of wage increases or decrease and the role of unemployment.
               (3) The role of financial assets and devaluation of assets in a deflationary world.
               (4) Global goods and service and whether supply exceeds demands equals deflation.
              (5) The shadow banking community has stopped financial speculations.
              (6) Credit card demand collapses in a world of deficient demand.
              (7) The five year stock market collapse from 2012 - 2017. 
              (8) The rise of annuity investments with higher interest rates than Bank rates. 6% vs. 1%!
              (9) The use of multi-year annuity which combines annuity with CD performance for Boomers.
              (10) The critical role of inventories in major industries.

Saturday, March 12, 2011

THE GREAT MOON OF FINANCIAL FORTUNE!

THE GREAT MOON ON SATURDAY IS A SYMBOL OF GOOD LUCK. THIS FULL MOON
HAS BROUGHT GOOD AND BAD EVENTS.  HOWEVER, THIS FOLLOWS ST. PATRICK'S DAY
IT SHOULD BRING GREAT FORTUNE TO ALL THAT SEE THIS WEB PAGE.  MAKE SURE YOU RUB THE PAGE AND PRINT OUT THIS PAGE FOR GOOD LUCK.  YOU WILL WIN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN A VERY SHORT TIME.  THIS IS IT!

Sunday, February 6, 2011

OIL EXPLOSION AND CASH EXPLOSION!!!!!!

THE MIDDLE EAST IS ON FIRE!  THE RING OF FIRE WILL IGNITE A FREE ROUND OF PRICING IN THE OIL MARKET.  THE EXTRA LAYERS OF OIL IN THE MIDDLE EAST
WILL BE COMBINED INTO A RING OF FIRE!  LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE SEASONAL FUNDAMENTALS BEHIND OIL: THE MAJOR REFINERIES USE AN ADVANCED SOFTWARE PROGRAM TO PREDICT USAGE TRENDS AND THEIR OWN SUPPLY AND THUS PRICE THEIR PRODUCT TO MEET DEMAND WITH GREAT EFFICIENCY.  THIS SOFTWARE PROGRAM PREDICTS THE TIME SPAN FROM EACH BARREL OF CRUDE OIL WHICH PRODUCES ROUGHT LY 19 GALLONS OF GASOLINE AND 9 GALLS OF DISTILLATE FUELS.  THE SOFTWARE PROGRAM CALCULATES THE TIME CONVERT A BARREL OF CRUDE OIL TO EITHER UNLEADED GASOLINE OR HEATING OIL.  THIS IS THE SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRICE TO OIL:

JANUARY:   THE INCREASE PER BARREL OF OIL IS $14.60. PRICE INCREASE FOR 9 MONTHS. ********

FEBRUARY: THE INCREASE PER BARREL IS $3.71.****

MARCH: THE INCREASE IS PB AT $5.29.*******

APRIL: THE INCREASE IS PB AT $2.77.*****

MAY: THE INCREASE IS $8.07.******

JUNE: THE INCREASE PER BARREL IS $4.12.**********

JULY: THE INCREASE IS $14.70.**************

AUGUST: THE INCREASE IS PB $20.53.
*******************
SEPTEMBER : THE INCREASE IS PB $19.87**************

OCTOBER: THE DECREASE IS $15.47.  THREE  MONTHS OF PRICE DECLINES! ------

NOVEMBER: THE DECREASE IS $13.27.-------------------------

DECEMBER: THE DECREASE IS $1.63.-------

Sunday, January 2, 2011

GOLD PULLBACK AND GOLD INVESTMENTS!

WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE GOLD MARKET?  JANUARY SHOULD BE THE WORST MONTH SINCE 1987 FOR THE GOLD BUGS.  GOLD HAS BEEN ON A WILD RIDE BECAUSE
WE ARE IN THE BASE OF AN INFLATIONARY CYCLE! THE INFLATIONARY CYCLE
BEGAN FOR GOLD IN 2004 AND WILL GO TO 2023! WE HAVE HAD A 6 YEAR INCREASE
AND COULD EXPECT A GOLD PLATEAU FOR SEVERAL MONTHS. PLATINUM PRICES TEND TO GO HIGHER THE IST QUARTER!  THIS IS THE  SEASONAL PREDICTION FOR GOLD:


JANUARY-  SHOULD BE A DOWN MONTH, UP MONTH FOR PLATINUM. THE LOSS
IS USUALLY $72.90 PER OUNCE.

FEBRUARY- SHOULD BE DOWN MONTH, UP MONTH FOR SILVER. GOLD LOSS
IS $38.90.

MARCH- SHOULD BE WEAK MONTH FOR GOLD.  GOLD LOSS IS $43.10. SILVER GAIN
IS 212 CENTS.

APRIL- SHOULD BE THE LAST WEAK MONTH FOR GOLD. GOLD LOSS IS
$20.30

MAY- GOLD BEGINS TO RALLY! GOLD LOSS IS $1.50 PER OUNCE.

JUNE- SHOULD BE A BAD MONTH FOR GOLD. GOLD LOSS IS $44.30

JULY- RALLY FOR GOLD. GOLD LOSS IS $13.40 SILVER GAIN IS $230.00 IN CENTS.

AUGUST- RALLY FOR GOLD. GOLD LOSS IS $54.30 SILVER LOSS AT 381.20 IN CENTS.

SEPTEMBER-STRONGEST MONTH FOR GOLD AND USUALLY GAIN AT ABOUT
$117.20/OUNCES AND SECOND STRONGEST MONTH FOR SILVER. 50% OF GOLD
CONSUMPTION FOR JEWELRY BUSINESS @ $35.20/OUNCES. GOLD GAIN
$117.20. SILVER GAIN IS $193.00 IN CENTS.

OCTOBER- STRONG RALLY FOR GOLD AND STONG JEWELRY TREND WILL GIVE
THE FINAL RESULTS FOR DECEMBER.  GOLD LOSS IS $61.80 PER OUNCE. SILVER
LOSS AT $316.00 CENTS.

NOVEMBER-SOME WEAKNESS IN GOLD AS SILVER OVERTAKES GOLD DUE TO
JEWELRY DEMAND.  GOLD GAIN IS $94.60.

DECEMBER- GOLD WEAKNESS THRU JANUARY OF 2012. GOLD GAIN IS $10.40

HOW SHOULD INVESTORS PLAY THESE TRENDS: PRICE PRECEDES DEMAND BUY
A MONTH BEFORE THE TREND. SOME GOLD FUND THAT HAVE GOOD 50% GROWTH ARE:

1. ECK (INIIX)
2. KINROSS GOLD (AEM)
3. RANGOLD RESOURCES (GOLD0
4. GOLD CORP (GG)
5. NORTHGATE MINERALS (NGX)
OTHER PLAYERS:
1. FKRCX, NGX, SGR, PRU, ANV, TGLDX, DWGOX, CG, HOC, AMV.

THE BOTTOM LINE GOLD IS THE LEADER OF A GLOBAL INFLATIONARY CYCLE WHICH WILL HIT THE HIGH OF ABOUT $5,000 PER OUNCE AROUND 2023.

Saturday, December 25, 2010

2011 CORNUCOPIA OF SUCCESS!

WHAT ARE THE MAJOR THEMES FOR 2011?  HOW CAN WE BECOME LIKE A FINANCIAL DETECTIVE AND FIND THE 11,000% RETURNS IN THE MARKET?  These are two of our
fundamental goals for the 2011 year.  We will examine the following themes and investigate their
possible returns from these hidden structures in the market:

I. THE DOLLAR VS. EURO HAS BECOME THE NEW CLASH OF THE TITANS!  The
new deleveraged world favors the dollar over the Euro and this could become a major theme
of the period.  The international events and interest rates will declare the new winner and
we will later look at various ETF strategies to play this opportunity.

II. THE COLLAPSE OF EUROPEAN BANKS IN THE AGE OF DELEVERAGING!
The European banks have too much debt from the Club Med group (i.e. Portugal, Spain,
Greece, Italy) and Eastern Europe.  The ETF Strategies center around key plays in
this market.

III. THE GOLD AND OIL TWINS OF DEFLATION AND INFLATION.  We have a paradox
of investment twins who work differently in two enviroments and we are not sure where these
twin will outperform deflation or inflation.  These are currently commodity plays and are
not near money or real money.

IV. THE EMERGING WORLD MARKET AND RISE OF INDIA, CHINA AND BRAZIL!
This has been a constant theme for the last 5 years and may signal the rise of inflation coming
from emerging nations and flowing into the Developed World. 

V. REGIONAL BANKS AND OTHER TAKEOVER TARGETS. 
Reginonal banks should be the best play for the investment season and stay alert to
various takeover targets as the debt crisis destroys balance sheets.

VI. TECHNOLOGY AS BECOME THE PROXY FOR MANUFACTURING IN USA.
The reality is the old manufacturing is not coming back and international trade dictums
states that comparative advantage is to great to overcome by the USA.  Consequently,
technology is the NEW MANUFACTURING for the future of America.  We will experience
the need for new productivity enhancers to create opportunity and profits from
cost cutting enhancers! 

VII. THE AGING OF AMERICA AND SURPRISE WINNERS OF THIS NEW ERA!
The USA is about to lose 76 million Boomers in the next 8 years to the world of second
careers?  The boom will cause various companies to hit the jackpot!

VIII. THE AGRICULTURAL BOOM IN THE USA!
The key 15 states will hit the crops jackpot in the USA.  The emerging market with over 2 Billion
people need American food and commodities.  This be the major investment play of the year!
This will translate into fodd and other consumer staples. 

IX. THE HEALTH CARE AND RISE OF THE NEW POWER ELITE.
The health care will create a new power elite and drive the New American decade from
2011-2020.  The new power base will be centered in the Health - Parma-Technological
Complex supported by the Federal Governement.

X. THE RISE OF FACTORY BUILT HOUSING AND RENTAL APARTMENTS.
The rise of cheap homes to appeal to the X generation and Rental Apartment will become
a boom as many individuals no longer perceive homes as an investment.  This will cause
a continued decade drop in the value of homes until 2018.  The supply inbalance should
be worked out in 7 years.

XI. THE RISE OF NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY!
The need for new energy sources will begin the aggressive search for new local based energy
sources for USA.  The rise of the Canadian success story will dominate this whole market
for the next decade.

XII. THE RISE OF NEW CAREERS FOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS AND PLANNERS!
The need for professional help will continue in this field.  Many Americans will realize they
need professional help and need to work with experts in the field of retirment. Americans
will have to create a income producing series pyramid layers with treasury bonds.  The
age of deleveraging will create instant deflation and instant inflation.

XIII. THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND THE INTEREST RATE GAME!
The leading forecasters predict a continuted deflation which will enhance the role
of Treasury Bond futures.  This play can make big money if you are right and
the interest rate continue to fall. 

XIV. HEIDELBERG CEMENT AND NEW EMERGING MARKET!
The German company Heidelberg Cement is making a big play in the area of
Indonesia which translates into the rise of material investments. Companies
like Vulcan Materials (VMC) and Martin Marietta (MLM) will enter
into this new age of material growth.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

The Age of Deleveraging and Paradox of Inflation!


Dr. Gary Schilling as become the new Judo Master of the World of Deflation.  His new book The
Age of Deleveraging is a classic book in the field of forecasting.  The problem is that the book
outlines a strategy for a long term deflation that will last from 2010-2020.  The primary problem
with this analysis is that it rests upon the following premises: (1) the historical foundations of deflation
which started in 1982 - 2020 will last a period of 48 years; (2) The theory goes against your
typical analysis of K- Waves and American History; (3) American Historian view this period
as the baseline for a 23 year inflationary period lasting from 2004 to 2027; (4) The role of
commodity prices contradicts the idea that prices will decline 2% to 4% for period of
10 years; (5) the gold indicator has started its ascent from a low in 2005 around $280 to
high of 2010 at $1,300.00; (6) Dr. Schilling has the theory of deflation to explain the
collapse of the housing prices as a major indicator of deflation; (7) The current crisis is caused
by the derivatives crisis that was created by Investment banks, Commerical Banks and Real
Estate propaganda; (8) the concentric collapse around the real estate market and Investment
banks are a function of storing risks for maximum gain; (8) The real problem is that deflation
is a plateau phase of creative destruction and it appear that it is creating a new supercycle;
(9) The inflationary cycle is K waves based and we are in the early stages of low inflation
which benefits everyone and no one pays the price for this change; consequently it appears
harmless and even beneficial to everyone; (10) Dr. Schiller's advice may have a 5 year
life span and needs to be corrected for massive changes coming; (11) Catepelliar Corporation
has invested 8 billion in the consolidation for a inflation wave of commodity growth and
not commodity deflation; (12) Consumers will see the massive tidal wave of price changes
at the end of the commodity cycle and not the beginning of this cycle; (13) The oil industry
has 10 years left before massive inflation hits the American dependence on energy whereas
the Green revolution requires about 137 year before it impacts the American Economy; (14)
Where does this leave us?  An investment compromise 3 years of Dr. Schlling advice and
17 years of inflationary portfolio restructuring for the New UPWAVE!

Sunday, October 3, 2010

THE COMING CRASH! OCTOBER JINX MONTH!

The stock market is not a reflection of the real economy.  The market is set to crash by at least 2,000 points.  The problem we running into is that the financial propaganda machine and mutual fund industry want to create the illusion of a stock market recovery.  The recession has ended in 2009 but the consumer is deleveraging for at least 7 more years.  This means there is no money to invest in the market!  There is no way you can logically make the case that 76 million boomers who are retiring will invest in the equity markets. This does not make sense because they will need most of their money considering that most 401 k have only $50,000 and this will last about one year and 50% of the Boomers are bankrupt and will depend on social security and low level work.  It will take the Y generation at least 10 years to come into a real spending power.  We are faced with a major collapse of state government economies that cannot budget their budgets and most bonds in these municipalities are worhtless.  As the Boomers retire, state retirements will be faced with higher costs and lower revenues for at least 10 years.  There is no logical way out for the equity markets.  What type of markets will we have?  We will have trader markets, bubble markets, alternative investment markets, emerging market, health markets, and other markets associated with the retiring Boomers.