The Corona Virus has created what Arnold Toynbee called the challenge and response model. The new challenge of the Corona Virus has created a series of Herculean challenges for the American economy and society. The old world of social and economic stability is under attack and will need an effective response to the Corona Virus. We are at the beginning phase of the Public Health War. This war will require the American Federal Government to mobilize the American Public.
What is the new Corona Virus Pandemic Model?
The First element of this model is the actual scientific understanding of the characteristics of the virus. The virus is based on a unique transmission and stability factors.
The transmission is based on the geometric rate of infection based on the exponential level of growth. This means that the virus moves from individual cases and forms a cluster of infection. The cluster of inflection grows at a geometrical rate of growth. There is a doubling process every 3 to 6 days. This creates the global statistics of 1 billion infections and 230 million serious cases. The United States will have a possible infection rate of 90 million Americans and 2 million dead.
The medical reality is that the United States as not been able to stop the transmission rate under 1.0. We will be hitting a " arnot" rate of 6 to 9 individuals. This means that for every infected American will spread this to 6 to 9 other individuals. This will multiply to other individuals.
The Public Health consequences are the collapse of hospital beds and crowding out of quarantine facilities. The lack of hospitals with capacity will result in the continuing spread of the virus. The Federal Government needs to build hospitals now and plan Femma based housing for homeless Americans.
The Second element is the American Economic Tradeoffs in the American economy. The United States will see a deflationary shock to the stock market. The stock market will be in a free fall for at least 2 years. This means that daily life will be slowing down. The entire American economy will experience a slow-motion slowdown.
Danny Dorling, Oxford Professor, has outlined the global impact of the great de-acceleration hitting the world. The American stock market will have 2 quarters with zero earnings growth!
The question becomes what do the American people value money or individuals? The economy will hit new lows and collapse in energy prices. The corporate establishment will have to make plans for public health investments.
The Federal Reserve model of both business and government participation can be converted into Corporate investment and Federal Government. health model. This is the major trade-off for the investment community's responsibility for being a corporate citizen in the United States.
The Third element is the active role of the Federal Government to create a new Public Health War Model. President Trump needs to set up a war room to plan to attack the spread of the virus and the containment of the virus. There needs to be emergency funding and creative solutions to expanding the role of the Federal Government in this 3-year war.
The President needs to activate a series of New Deal type legislation working with Congress and pass the Public Health Funding Program. The Federal Government needs to hire marketing firms to educate the American public on the dangers of this virus.
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