WHAT ARE THE MAJOR THEMES FOR 2011? HOW CAN WE BECOME LIKE A FINANCIAL DETECTIVE AND FIND THE 11,000% RETURNS IN THE MARKET? These are two of our
fundamental goals for the 2011 year. We will examine the following themes and investigate their
possible returns from these hidden structures in the market:
I. THE DOLLAR VS. EURO HAS BECOME THE NEW CLASH OF THE TITANS! The
new deleveraged world favors the dollar over the Euro and this could become a major theme
of the period. The international events and interest rates will declare the new winner and
we will later look at various ETF strategies to play this opportunity.
II. THE COLLAPSE OF EUROPEAN BANKS IN THE AGE OF DELEVERAGING!
The European banks have too much debt from the Club Med group (i.e. Portugal, Spain,
Greece, Italy) and Eastern Europe. The ETF Strategies center around key plays in
this market.
III. THE GOLD AND OIL TWINS OF DEFLATION AND INFLATION. We have a paradox
of investment twins who work differently in two enviroments and we are not sure where these
twin will outperform deflation or inflation. These are currently commodity plays and are
not near money or real money.
IV. THE EMERGING WORLD MARKET AND RISE OF INDIA, CHINA AND BRAZIL!
This has been a constant theme for the last 5 years and may signal the rise of inflation coming
from emerging nations and flowing into the Developed World.
V. REGIONAL BANKS AND OTHER TAKEOVER TARGETS.
Reginonal banks should be the best play for the investment season and stay alert to
various takeover targets as the debt crisis destroys balance sheets.
VI. TECHNOLOGY AS BECOME THE PROXY FOR MANUFACTURING IN USA.
The reality is the old manufacturing is not coming back and international trade dictums
states that comparative advantage is to great to overcome by the USA. Consequently,
technology is the NEW MANUFACTURING for the future of America. We will experience
the need for new productivity enhancers to create opportunity and profits from
cost cutting enhancers!
VII. THE AGING OF AMERICA AND SURPRISE WINNERS OF THIS NEW ERA!
The USA is about to lose 76 million Boomers in the next 8 years to the world of second
careers? The boom will cause various companies to hit the jackpot!
VIII. THE AGRICULTURAL BOOM IN THE USA!
The key 15 states will hit the crops jackpot in the USA. The emerging market with over 2 Billion
people need American food and commodities. This be the major investment play of the year!
This will translate into fodd and other consumer staples.
IX. THE HEALTH CARE AND RISE OF THE NEW POWER ELITE.
The health care will create a new power elite and drive the New American decade from
2011-2020. The new power base will be centered in the Health - Parma-Technological
Complex supported by the Federal Governement.
X. THE RISE OF FACTORY BUILT HOUSING AND RENTAL APARTMENTS.
The rise of cheap homes to appeal to the X generation and Rental Apartment will become
a boom as many individuals no longer perceive homes as an investment. This will cause
a continued decade drop in the value of homes until 2018. The supply inbalance should
be worked out in 7 years.
XI. THE RISE OF NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY!
The need for new energy sources will begin the aggressive search for new local based energy
sources for USA. The rise of the Canadian success story will dominate this whole market
for the next decade.
XII. THE RISE OF NEW CAREERS FOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS AND PLANNERS!
The need for professional help will continue in this field. Many Americans will realize they
need professional help and need to work with experts in the field of retirment. Americans
will have to create a income producing series pyramid layers with treasury bonds. The
age of deleveraging will create instant deflation and instant inflation.
XIII. THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND THE INTEREST RATE GAME!
The leading forecasters predict a continuted deflation which will enhance the role
of Treasury Bond futures. This play can make big money if you are right and
the interest rate continue to fall.
XIV. HEIDELBERG CEMENT AND NEW EMERGING MARKET!
The German company Heidelberg Cement is making a big play in the area of
Indonesia which translates into the rise of material investments. Companies
like Vulcan Materials (VMC) and Martin Marietta (MLM) will enter
into this new age of material growth.
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
The Age of Deleveraging and Paradox of Inflation!
Dr. Gary Schilling as become the new Judo Master of the World of Deflation. His new book The
Age of Deleveraging is a classic book in the field of forecasting. The problem is that the book
outlines a strategy for a long term deflation that will last from 2010-2020. The primary problem
with this analysis is that it rests upon the following premises: (1) the historical foundations of deflation
which started in 1982 - 2020 will last a period of 48 years; (2) The theory goes against your
typical analysis of K- Waves and American History; (3) American Historian view this period
as the baseline for a 23 year inflationary period lasting from 2004 to 2027; (4) The role of
commodity prices contradicts the idea that prices will decline 2% to 4% for period of
10 years; (5) the gold indicator has started its ascent from a low in 2005 around $280 to
high of 2010 at $1,300.00; (6) Dr. Schilling has the theory of deflation to explain the
collapse of the housing prices as a major indicator of deflation; (7) The current crisis is caused
by the derivatives crisis that was created by Investment banks, Commerical Banks and Real
Estate propaganda; (8) the concentric collapse around the real estate market and Investment
banks are a function of storing risks for maximum gain; (8) The real problem is that deflation
is a plateau phase of creative destruction and it appear that it is creating a new supercycle;
(9) The inflationary cycle is K waves based and we are in the early stages of low inflation
which benefits everyone and no one pays the price for this change; consequently it appears
harmless and even beneficial to everyone; (10) Dr. Schiller's advice may have a 5 year
life span and needs to be corrected for massive changes coming; (11) Catepelliar Corporation
has invested 8 billion in the consolidation for a inflation wave of commodity growth and
not commodity deflation; (12) Consumers will see the massive tidal wave of price changes
at the end of the commodity cycle and not the beginning of this cycle; (13) The oil industry
has 10 years left before massive inflation hits the American dependence on energy whereas
the Green revolution requires about 137 year before it impacts the American Economy; (14)
Where does this leave us? An investment compromise 3 years of Dr. Schlling advice and
17 years of inflationary portfolio restructuring for the New UPWAVE!
Sunday, October 3, 2010
THE COMING CRASH! OCTOBER JINX MONTH!
The stock market is not a reflection of the real economy. The market is set to crash by at least 2,000 points. The problem we running into is that the financial propaganda machine and mutual fund industry want to create the illusion of a stock market recovery. The recession has ended in 2009 but the consumer is deleveraging for at least 7 more years. This means there is no money to invest in the market! There is no way you can logically make the case that 76 million boomers who are retiring will invest in the equity markets. This does not make sense because they will need most of their money considering that most 401 k have only $50,000 and this will last about one year and 50% of the Boomers are bankrupt and will depend on social security and low level work. It will take the Y generation at least 10 years to come into a real spending power. We are faced with a major collapse of state government economies that cannot budget their budgets and most bonds in these municipalities are worhtless. As the Boomers retire, state retirements will be faced with higher costs and lower revenues for at least 10 years. There is no logical way out for the equity markets. What type of markets will we have? We will have trader markets, bubble markets, alternative investment markets, emerging market, health markets, and other markets associated with the retiring Boomers.
Sunday, September 5, 2010
RETURN OF THE TRIPLE WITCH-THE COMING COLLAPSE!
THE STRANGE TALES FROM THE STOCK MARKET: Stock options expire the third Friday of September but the biggest losses come in the week before the TRIPLE WITCHING DOW! WATCH OUT !
THE EXPIRATION WEEK 2001 DOW OFF 1369.70 POINTS=WORST WEEKLY DOW POINT LOSS EVER. THIS REPEAT OF HISTORY IS SCHEDULE FOR SEPTEMBER 22, 2010! THE SECOND PIECE OF ADVICE IS TO SELL ROSH HASHANAH, BUT YOM KIPPUR, SELL PASSOVER. WHAT IS WORST CASE SCENARIO: DOW DOWN -14.3 AND S& P DOWN
-11.9 AND NASDAQ DOWN- 17.0 AND RUSSELL 1 K DOWN -11.7 AND FINALLY RUSSELL
-2 K DOWN- 14.0. END OFTHIRD QUARTER BRINGS HEAVY SELLING FROM INSTUTIONAL PORTFOLIOS! ON THE COMMODITIES FRONT: SEPTEMBER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY SEASON BULLISH FOR ALL TYPES OF GOLD! GOOD RALLY FOR PETROLUEM FUTURES,
GOOD FOR SILVER RALLY, LIVE CATTLE, AND WATCH OUT FOR SEPTEMBER SLAMMER IN COCOA FUTURES! WE ARE LOOKING AT -$134.00 TON USING DECEMBER FUTURES.
Sunday, August 1, 2010
THE DEATH STAR OF AUGUST!
August will the be final verdict for the stock market. August should lead to either a confirmation of "modern day depression" or a mild deflation for the rest of the year! First trading day in August atrocious down 13 of last 20! August is the worst S& P SINCE 1987 .First nine days of August are historically very weak! End of August Murderous 6 out of 10 years. Dow usually loses 5% S& P about 3% and Nasdaq about 3.1%
Plan for investment in Gold and Silver, Biotech and Utilities. (BTK, XAU, UTY). Watch for August weakness in Silver.Look for rallies in corn. Watch the movement of gold prices-if they are up a big season ahead -if they are down then deflation will destroy gold!
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
SECULAR DOWNWAVE IN STOCKS! 2010-2016: JULY LOOKS BAD!
This is the beginning of the end for the equity market. We are looking for a rolling thunder of equity destruction to begin and July and hit a 2,000 pt. drop in August. This is a conservative estimate.
You should be in 30 year zero coupon treasury bonds for the next 6 months. This is a serious drOP AND
REALIZATION THE MARKET WILL END IN A DISASTER FOR EQUITY INVESTORS! This is the beginning of the worst 4 months for Nasdaq. BAD MONTH TO BUY SOYBEANS, FOR CORN. GOOD SEASONAL TRADES IN BIOTECH, GOLD AND SILVER, UTILITIES.
You should be in 30 year zero coupon treasury bonds for the next 6 months. This is a serious drOP AND
REALIZATION THE MARKET WILL END IN A DISASTER FOR EQUITY INVESTORS! This is the beginning of the worst 4 months for Nasdaq. BAD MONTH TO BUY SOYBEANS, FOR CORN. GOOD SEASONAL TRADES IN BIOTECH, GOLD AND SILVER, UTILITIES.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
CRUSHED IN 2002 DOWN 215 POINTS! WATCH OUT FOR JUNE!
WE ARE IN A DEFLATIONARY YEAR AND JUNE SHOULD BEGIN THE LONG WAVE DOWNWARD. THE KEY IS TO REMEMBER IF THERE IS A RALLY IT IS THE WEAKESS RALLY IN THE MARKET. THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS IS COMING OUT OF EUROPE CREATING A WEAK EURO AND WEAK STOCK AND BOND MARKET. THIS IS NOT THE TIME TO INVEST IN THE EUROPEAN MARKETS. THE DEFLATION IS VERY STRONG AND CREATES THE ILLUSION OF A LONG TERM DEFLATION WE ARE BEGINNING A NEW 30 YEAR INFLATIONARY CYCLE IN 2011-2041. GOOD MOVE FOR TREASURIES FROM JUNE 2 TO JUNE 16TH.
Monday, May 3, 2010
HIGHWAY TO THE DANGER ZONE!!
THE STOCK MARKET IS ENTERING THE MAY AND JUNE DISASTER AREA! THIS MEANS THAT THE ODDS THAT THE MARKET WILL BE A MINE FIELDS IS HIGHLY PREDICTABLE WITH ODDS OF 15 OUT OF 20 DOWNS FROM 1965 TO 1984. THIS SHOULD BE THE WORST SIX MONTHS FROM MAY TO OCTOBER RESULTS IN RECORD LOSSES. THIS IS THE BEST TIME TO SWITCH INTO A STRONG DEFENSIVE POSTURE. PETROLEUM FUTURES U PS, COFFFE FUTURES DOWN, SUGAR FUTURES SHOULD BE UP.
Monday, March 29, 2010
APRIL TOP DOW MONTH SINCE 1950!
CAN APRIL BE THE LAST MONTH OF THIS BEAR RALLY WINNING STREAK? THE RALLY HAS GONE FOR OVER 1 YEAR AND APRIL TENDS TO BE THE BEST MONTH SINCE 1950!
THE ONLY DANGER OF GOING INTO AN EARLY BEAR IS AFTER APRIL 15TH WHICH COULD START THE COLLAPSE OF THE STOCK MARKET. GOOD AREAS: COMPUTER TECH, HEALTHCARE PRODUCT, HIGH-TECH AND INTERNET. THESE STOCKS ARE GOOD UNTIL JULY OF 2010. COMMODITIES PLAY: JUNE CRUDE OIL UP, GOLD DOWN, JULY SILVER UP, JULY SOLYBEANS DOWN, 2ND WORTH MONTH FOR COCOA AND WILD CARD CORN FUTURES. HOUSING IN THE WORST FOUR STATES: ARIZONA, NEVADA, CALIFORNIA, AND FLORIDA DOWN 25%!
Saturday, February 27, 2010
STOCK'S LUCKY BEFORE THE 17TH OF MARCH!
THIS COULD BE A WILD MONTH WITH HIGHS AND LOWS THAT LEAD TO A EMERGING STAGNANT MARKET FOR MAY. THIS IS THE END OF THE QUARTER EARNING SEASON THAT MAY HAVE A HIGH DOWN SEASON FOR MAJOR COMPANIES. THE MAXIMUM DOWN FOR NASDAQ COULD HIT 14%. GOOD DAYS FOR DOW MARCH 1, 2, 5,6,7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23,26, 27, 28, 29, 30.
COMMODITY PLAYS: NATURAL GAS AND PETRO: METAL FUTURES GOLD DOWN AND SILVER UP; COFFEE DOWN; SOYBEAN UP AND LEAN HOGS UP.
COMMODITY PLAYS: NATURAL GAS AND PETRO: METAL FUTURES GOLD DOWN AND SILVER UP; COFFEE DOWN; SOYBEAN UP AND LEAN HOGS UP.
Saturday, February 6, 2010
DESIGN THINKING AND NEW SOFTWARE REVOLUTION! HASSO PLATTNER
THE EMERGENCE OF DESIGN THINKING IN THE FIELD OF SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT AND PUBLISHING WILL CREATE THE NEXT NEW REVOLUTION IN SOFTWARE PRODUCTS.
THE PROCESS OF INNOVATION HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE NEW DESIGN THINKING TECHNOLOGY. HASSO PLATTNER IS A GENIUS IN THAT HE HAS FOUNDED TWO MAJOR INSTITUTES AT STANFORD UNIVERSITY AND IN POTTSDAM, GERMANY. HASSO HAS SET THE 21ST CENTURY AGENDA FOR SAP. SAP HAS A NEW AGENDA TO RESDESIGN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY BASED ON DESIGN THINKING APPLICATION TO NEW SOFTWARE PRODUCTS. THERE IS A GREAT POWER THAT HAS BEEN RELEASED INTO THE FIELD OF SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL SHATTER THROUGH CREATIVE DESTRUCTION THE OLD MODELS. WHAT IS DESIGN THINKING? DESIGN THINKING TEACHES FOR SOFTWARE DEVELOPERS AN AUTOMATED PROCESS OF INNOVATION METHODOLOGIES, NEED FINDING, VISUALIZATION, RAPID PROTOTYPING, TEAM DYNAMICS, DIGITAL STORYTELLING AND PROJECT LEADERSHIP. SAP HAS THE PROTOTYPE TO MASS SCALE OF DESIGN OPTIONS FOR THE FUTURE! TRADITIONALLY, THE OLD INVENTORS MONOPOLY HAS BEEN BROKEN AND IS BEEN REPLACED BY DESIGN THINKING THAT LEADS TO DIRECT INNOVATION. THE ABILITY TO SEIZE THIS MARKET WILL HAMPER MICROSOFT, ORACLE, IBM, GOOGLE, AND OTHER SOFTWARE COMPANIES. IS IT POSSIBLE FOR FOR SAP TO TAKEOVER MICROSOFT OR GOOGLE?
SAP IS PLANNING A BRILLIANT BLITZKRIEG TO CONTROL THE WORLD MARKETS.
THE PROCESS OF INNOVATION HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE NEW DESIGN THINKING TECHNOLOGY. HASSO PLATTNER IS A GENIUS IN THAT HE HAS FOUNDED TWO MAJOR INSTITUTES AT STANFORD UNIVERSITY AND IN POTTSDAM, GERMANY. HASSO HAS SET THE 21ST CENTURY AGENDA FOR SAP. SAP HAS A NEW AGENDA TO RESDESIGN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY BASED ON DESIGN THINKING APPLICATION TO NEW SOFTWARE PRODUCTS. THERE IS A GREAT POWER THAT HAS BEEN RELEASED INTO THE FIELD OF SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL SHATTER THROUGH CREATIVE DESTRUCTION THE OLD MODELS. WHAT IS DESIGN THINKING? DESIGN THINKING TEACHES FOR SOFTWARE DEVELOPERS AN AUTOMATED PROCESS OF INNOVATION METHODOLOGIES, NEED FINDING, VISUALIZATION, RAPID PROTOTYPING, TEAM DYNAMICS, DIGITAL STORYTELLING AND PROJECT LEADERSHIP. SAP HAS THE PROTOTYPE TO MASS SCALE OF DESIGN OPTIONS FOR THE FUTURE! TRADITIONALLY, THE OLD INVENTORS MONOPOLY HAS BEEN BROKEN AND IS BEEN REPLACED BY DESIGN THINKING THAT LEADS TO DIRECT INNOVATION. THE ABILITY TO SEIZE THIS MARKET WILL HAMPER MICROSOFT, ORACLE, IBM, GOOGLE, AND OTHER SOFTWARE COMPANIES. IS IT POSSIBLE FOR FOR SAP TO TAKEOVER MICROSOFT OR GOOGLE?
SAP IS PLANNING A BRILLIANT BLITZKRIEG TO CONTROL THE WORLD MARKETS.
Sunday, January 31, 2010
THE WEAK LINK OF FEBRUARY: BEGINNING OF BEAR MARKET!
Traditionally, February is the weak link in the chain of stock market trading. The market has been down
between 7.4% to 4.9%: Nasdaq down 22.4%- look for confirmation after Presidents Day. The Commodity Play is usually Natural Gas ; Silver tends to be up, good Market for soybeans, Live Cattle up, and look for confirmation in Hogs. Good month to short Wheat futures and good play on KCBT wheat for long contract.
The best days of February 1,2, 6, 12. 15, 21, 26, x2 , 28.
between 7.4% to 4.9%: Nasdaq down 22.4%- look for confirmation after Presidents Day. The Commodity Play is usually Natural Gas ; Silver tends to be up, good Market for soybeans, Live Cattle up, and look for confirmation in Hogs. Good month to short Wheat futures and good play on KCBT wheat for long contract.
The best days of February 1,2, 6, 12. 15, 21, 26, x2 , 28.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
THE AMERICAN FRACTAL ECONOMY, 2010-2020
The American Fractal Economy will become the "new normal" for the United States. This new model of the American Economy is extremely inportant for investors. We have entered into a
a post-derivatives chaotic economy created by the shadow banking system. The new normal is nothing more than the recognition of the emerging fractal creating a new pattern of economic activity. The new boundaries of the American fractal economy is: (1) the recognition that the Japanese fractal is the prime mover of the American economic spending; (2) there will be two groups invovled in the American economy: (a) 20% of Large Cap. companies who will be accelerating out of the Great Recession and; (b) 80% of the other companies that will be deaccelerating and integrating into the Great Recession; (c) Identification of the companies that will be accelerating out the Great Recession will be the big winners; (3) K waves are the basis for commodity growth will be interrupted for 5 years and great a new downwave in commodities; (4) the American Banking system is deleveraging from the derivates debacle which means contraction of lending for 8 years; (4) Consumers have just started deleveraging for the next 10 years and this is truly a lost decade for the consumer; (5) State Government will be deleveraging for about 10 years and create a massive lost of revenues; (6) Private Industry will be doing like GE looking for cash and cleaning up the balance sheets for 5 years; (7) The Republicans will discover that
Say's law does not work and the supply does not create demand; (8) the Millennial generation will respond to the fractal by creating large democratic party majorities and create new public policies; and finally (9) the American GDP will hoover around 1.7% to 2.3% for the next decade. This is the time to re-discover Chinese, Indian and Brazilian stock market.
a post-derivatives chaotic economy created by the shadow banking system. The new normal is nothing more than the recognition of the emerging fractal creating a new pattern of economic activity. The new boundaries of the American fractal economy is: (1) the recognition that the Japanese fractal is the prime mover of the American economic spending; (2) there will be two groups invovled in the American economy: (a) 20% of Large Cap. companies who will be accelerating out of the Great Recession and; (b) 80% of the other companies that will be deaccelerating and integrating into the Great Recession; (c) Identification of the companies that will be accelerating out the Great Recession will be the big winners; (3) K waves are the basis for commodity growth will be interrupted for 5 years and great a new downwave in commodities; (4) the American Banking system is deleveraging from the derivates debacle which means contraction of lending for 8 years; (4) Consumers have just started deleveraging for the next 10 years and this is truly a lost decade for the consumer; (5) State Government will be deleveraging for about 10 years and create a massive lost of revenues; (6) Private Industry will be doing like GE looking for cash and cleaning up the balance sheets for 5 years; (7) The Republicans will discover that
Say's law does not work and the supply does not create demand; (8) the Millennial generation will respond to the fractal by creating large democratic party majorities and create new public policies; and finally (9) the American GDP will hoover around 1.7% to 2.3% for the next decade. This is the time to re-discover Chinese, Indian and Brazilian stock market.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
WIN A MILLION DOLLAR HOME!
YOU CAN WIN A MILLION DOLLAR HOME THAT IS WORTH OVER $2 MILLION DOLLARS. AN EXCITING OPPORTUNITY TO FIND YOUR MAGICAL HOME!
TOP INVESTMENTS FOR JANUARY 2010
THE TOP INVESTMENTS FOR JANUARY ARE CENTERED INTO AREAS: (1) SMALL CAP STOCKS WHICH OUTPERFORM BIG CAPS IN JANUARY. THE SMALL CAP STOCKS DO REAL WELL FROM JANUARY TO JUNE OF 2010. CHECK THE RUSSELL 1000 FOR CHART VALIDATION OF THIS NEW EFFECT. MONDAY ARE USUALLY UP BY 54.8%; TUESDAY ARE DOWN 49.7% OF THE TIME; WEDNESDAY ARE UP 54% OF THE TIME AND THURSDAY IS UP ABOUT 50.7% AND FRIDAY'S TEND TO BE UP 53.6%.
THE TOP COMMODITIES RESEARCH SHOWS THAT EXPECT A DOWN WAVE FOR GOLD FROM JANUARY 14, 2010 FOR ABOUT 38 DAYS. A GOOD TIME TO SHORT GOLD. SOYBEANS TEND TO BE A GOOD SHORT PLAY AND SUGAR IS ALSO A GOOD SHORT PLAY. A GOOD MONTH FOR HOG FUTURES AND CATTLE. THIS IS ALSO A GOOD TIME TO SHORT GAS.
THE TOP COMMODITIES RESEARCH SHOWS THAT EXPECT A DOWN WAVE FOR GOLD FROM JANUARY 14, 2010 FOR ABOUT 38 DAYS. A GOOD TIME TO SHORT GOLD. SOYBEANS TEND TO BE A GOOD SHORT PLAY AND SUGAR IS ALSO A GOOD SHORT PLAY. A GOOD MONTH FOR HOG FUTURES AND CATTLE. THIS IS ALSO A GOOD TIME TO SHORT GAS.
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